Evening After

 It's about 8:00 pm and about 85° in the house right now. The band down the street has been playing music on their front porch for a couple of hours. There's still a fair amount of traffic up and down S. Claiborne, where of course the street lights and traffic signals are out. Entergy isn't even venturing a guess as to when power might be restored, and the word is that it could be at least two weeks. I have enough gas on hand to run the generator for a couple more days, maybe three, and at this point would probably have to drive to Mississippi to refill my two 5-gallon gas cans. I'm hoping for some better information from Entergy before deciding what to do. Tulane is shipping out the remaining students tomorrow morning and not planning on resuming in-person classes until after Spring break in October, and of course my office will be back to working from home for however long it takes to get power back. Here's a bit from the announcement that went out:

Due to the current lack of power and critical services in the city, we have decided to restructure the semester to allow for maximum in-person instructional time while also protecting the safety of our community. We are closing campus and cancelling classes through Sunday, September 12. The two weeks of canceled classes will be rescheduled at the end of the semester, allowing us nearly two and a half months of on-campus education following our return. Classes will resume online only beginning Monday, September 13 through Wednesday, October 6 to give the city time to repair and reinstate power and other critical services.

On Monday, October 11, following fall break, we will return to in-person classes on campus. Fall break, October 7 - October 10, will allow our students, faculty, and staff time to return to the city and campus prior to class resuming. 

The city is asking people who evacuated to delay returning since without electricity everything is compromised - sewer, water, drainage, hospitals, gas stations, grocery stores, restaurants, etc. Shades of Katrina.

I spent most of the day cleaning up. First, there was the huge oak tree branch on top of the garage, and some quick repairs to the garage roof. Then about five hours of picking up branches and leaves that resulted in a couple of huge piles of large branches and 16 trash bags full of the smaller stuff. Tonight I'll set up a fan in the bedroom and let the generator run to keep the refrigerator going. Maybe I'll try and go for a ride tomorrow, but probably not until it's light because trying to avoid all of the stuff in the streets right now in the dark would be too risky, even with a good headlight. 

Today is Danielle's birthday, just as it was the day after Katrina 16 years ago. Happy birthday, Danielle.

Morning After

Could be worse

Well, the roof is still on the house and the house is still standing. There were times yesterday when I had serious doubts that would be the case as the wind gusts rocked the whole house. The terrifying wind gusts that started around 4 pm didn't ease up until around 9 pm. There's a gutter hanging from the roof, a torn screen on the porch, some water in the basement that blew through the gaps in the basement windows, the electrical service line support was pulled off of the house, and lots and lots of tree branches are everywhere. But that's not the worst of it. The worst is that a big Entergy transmission tower collapsed leaving basically the entire city without power and no good estimate of when it might be restored (update: maybe three weeks?). All eight transmission lines into New Orleans failed. Also, AT&T towers are apparently down, so I have no telephone or text capability at the moment. Candy has Verizon, and that seems to be working.

Some of the gutter that was blown down

It is just getting light right now. I fired up the little generator a little while ago and plugged in the refrigerator and router, and was pleased to find that at least I still have internet access. I'll add some photos once there's some light, assuming it's not raining. This will be more than a one or two day clean-up for many.

Probably won't be getting in any miles today!

Update: Sounds like Tulane will be sending students home for about three weeks and I'll probably be back to working from home status too, or at least until the power is restored. I'm going to need more gas if I'm going to have to keep my little generator going that long, and I really doubt it's up to that anyway.

Amazed that the garage is still standing

No Good News

Hurricane Ida is basically a Category 5 hurricane right now, 75 miles south of Grand Isle with winds of 150 mph. Track brings it right into Houma and then Baton Rouge at the moment. This will be one of the strongest, if not the strongest, hurricane to make landfall in Louisiana. So basically there is no good news here. It'll be about 5 hours until landfall, I think.

1:12 pm update: Amazingly we still have power although it has momentarily gone out four or five times so far. The wind gusts are getting fairly strong but I think it will be a while longer before we feel the full effects. I've been hearing transformers blowing out in the area for a couple of hours, so of course we expect the power to go out for good at any time now.

4:30 pm update:  Power keeps flickering but is still on. Under a severe wind warning now. Lost one of the gutter downspouts a little while ago. More rain now too.

Shifty Ida

 

Shifting east. Not good.

The latest tracks are looking worse for New Orleans. Earlier today it was looking like we would escape hurricane force winds. Now, not so much. I find myself wishing I was up in Arkansas at Joe Martin getting my legs ripped off.

Ida Saturday

Saturday morning on the levee

After a very rainy night I awoke to much nicer weather this morning, and although I didn't even consider the Giro Ride on the still-wet streets, but mid-morning the road was dry and the sun was out and I figured I could use a little mental health ride. I hadn't been on the levee very long when I ran into Mignon who was on her mountain bike and doing the same, so we did a nice long easy conversational ride out to the Big Dip and back. There was a steady east wind, but it wasn't strong at all, and the temperature felt considerably cooler than usual. Along the way there must have been seven or eight weather alerts and text messages that popped up on my Garmin. One was a summary of Tulane's weather service's update that read:

Currently a Cat. 1 w/85 mph sustained winds. 475 miles SSE of New Orleans moving northwest at 16 mph and will continue that track through landfall. Expect gradual increase in intensity today with some rapid intensification overnight and tomorrow.  Expected to make landfall as a Cat. 4.  Expected to make landfall directly over Morgan City and then turn north toward Baton Rouge.  Both Accuweather and NHC do not expect sustained hurricane force winds in New Orleans. Currently HF winds 50 miles from the center.  We expect TS force winds sustained at 50-55 arriving after 3 pm and lasting until about 1-2 am with slow improvement on Monday.  TS gusts should begin around 1 pm. Still predicting 6-8 inches of rain.  3 pm-3 am worst rainfall, worse to our west.  Storm surge LP 4-6 feet, outside the levee system, MS river delta, 6-12 feet.  It could wiggle to the east about 10 miles which would increase rain prediction to 10 inches.

So I guess I'll take that as good news under the circumstances, but as we all know, these things can change unexpectedly. We will be staying here at home, hoping for the best. Lots of people have evacuated already and the interstate was a parking lot this morning and probably still is. I'll be happy if we make to Monday afternoon without a tree coming through the roof or a window. I'm sure we'll lose power at some point Sunday night or Monday morning, but at least we know the drill.

Here We Go Again

Things could change, of course, once the hurricane hunters get out there and check out the details, but as usual there's a storm coming and the initial models have it aimed at us. Early models being what they are, that might be good news, but internal alerts are already going out for a possible hurricane around the end of the weekend. 

It has not escaped my notice that next Sunday will be the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

We should know something a little more reliable around 4 pm today, but I am not liking what I'm seeing right now.  On this day in 2005 I innocently wrote,  "Hurricane Katrina seems to have changed her mind a bit and now seems to be leaning toward a visit to the Crescent City. I was afraid of that. The earlier predictions were all over the map. Probably no landfall until Monday, but who knows? It will certainly be a Category 3 hurricane in a day or so.." 

And then the next day: what I wrote on August 27 of 2005.

Early Thursday afternoon models

This morning was super-humid up on the levee. We started out with a pretty big group, and with a bit of tailwind the outbound pace stayed pretty high. With so many in the paceline I was only on the front for three short pulls. It probably would have four or five, but Chris was taking these super-long pulls at 24 mph, and then a final one that ramped up to about 30. The headwind kept the speed down a bit on the return trip, which was good because by then I was feeling pretty tapped out for some reason. 

Anyway, all bets are off right now for the weekend. It could be fine or it could be disaster. We'll just have to wait and see. 

Pass Christian; Change of Plan

Looking out at the Gulf

It was some time around mid-week that Charles suggested organizing a little ad hoc ride out of Pass Christian with Steve Martin and maybe some of the other Gulf Coast regulars. It had been years since I'd done a ride around there, so I tentatively planned on attending the Saturday 60-miler. 

The week had been another routine series of sweaty August weekday group rides, and I was looking forward to something a little different, so Friday evening I told Candy I'd be taking the car over to Mississippi for a ride. Earlier that day I'd gotten a message from Lisa about doing another northshore ride on Saturday, but I had to respond that I was already committed to Pass Christian. She said that maybe she and Brett would just do their own thing. As I made the hour's drive over to Pass Christian I figured the plan would be a pretty chill 60 miles with a small group with maybe one or two brief fast segments. I hadn't bothered to put on the race wheels or add electrolyte to a water bottle, but did bring a little flask of Hammergel just in case. Arriving at the War Memorial Park start location a bit early, I noted a few people already there, including Peter Stephens, and Blake Thompson. 

Hmmmm. Could get kind of interesting, I thought. Then Brett and Lisa showed up.  

Hmmmm. Could get kind of hurty, I thought. This might require a change of plans.

I had no idea where I was going.

With Pat, Steve Martin, Al Jordan, and Charlie Davis, it was looking like we'd have a group of around nine or ten. Just as we were about to roll out, though, Steve Johnson arrived late with his new Basso, so we waited a few minutes as he rushed to get his act together. I had uploaded the route from Ridewithgps since I was entirely unfamiliar with where we'd be going, so as we clipped in, I started navigation and didn't give it a second thought. As it turned out, something about the downloaded route was royally screwed up. My Garmin kept showing a right turn ahead at a certain number of miles, but as we rode the number of miles was increasing rather than decreasing. The map itself looked fine, but the turn warnings were somehow backwards or something. It drove me crazy the rest of the ride.

So anyway, after a few miles the pace started to ramp up, led largely by Blake and Brett, I think, and I made the quick decision to take only very short pulls. You know, just in case. I knew it wasn't going to be getting any slower, and was pretty sure it was going to just get faster and faster. Almost from the start Charlie was struggling, and we waited for him and one or two others who had stayed with him at a couple of the first intersections, but after that he was left to his own devices. Still early in the ride, Blake took this long, long fast pull on a nice shady rolling road that really put most of us on the rivet. Things were already coming apart, and to make matters worse, Blake's effort seemed to have flicked Brett's "race mode" switch to the "on" position. At one point a gap opened up ahead with Brett, Blake, Lisa, and Steve J up the road. It wasn't an attack or anything, so the gap wasn't expanding at an alarming rate or anything, so I went around a couple of people and started a long effort to bridge up to them. Just as I was about to catch, I saw Steve come off the front and drop back, so I aimed for his wheel. Unfortunately, he was already on the edge and blew up, leaving me in the wind again. Up ahead I saw Lisa getting gapped off, so at least I knew it wasn't just me! A mile or two later there was an intersection where we quickly regrouped. After that turn we continued on, with the speed ranging from 23 to 30 until we got to the promised store stop at around mile 40 with the rest of the group rolling in a couple of minutes later. By then it was getting pretty warm, but I still had more than enough water left to make it the rest of the way in. Steve offered me some of the Gatorade he'd just bought, so I poured a little bit of it into my water bottle on the assumption that I could probably use a little electrolyte replacement.

The last 20 miles continued at about the same pace, and the group again split at some point. Up front it was Brett, Lisa, Blake, Steve J and me, I think. Then at a left turn, Blake went straight for some reason, I think to take a shorter route back, so after a while it was mostly just Lisa, Brett, Steve and me. I was still feeling pretty good, but of course I had been taking short pulls all day. When Lisa kind of punched it on one of the little bridges a few miles from the end, we lost Steve, but a couple of miles later we were close enough to town that we slowed down for the last bit.

So although it turned out to be a faster ride than I'd been planning, and was much faster than some of the other people in the group had been expecting, I really enjoyed the mostly steady hard effort and was glad I'd been able to hang on the whole way.

The Sunday Giro rolls out along Marconi

On Sunday I did the Giro Ride, which was of course hot but not super-hard or anything, at least from my vantage point safely nestled in the draft. You might call it a "Recovery Giro."

Meanwhile, back at home, Candy's recovery from her hip replacement is practically complete. I think she walked three miles on Sunday. Tulane starts classes this week, three's a Saints game in the Superdome tonight, and while COVID cases locally have definitely levelled off, there are a lot of mixed messages about the pandemic right now. The CDC just gave full approval to the Pfizer vaccine (the one I had), which means a number of places are going to start requiring vaccination of their employees and/or students. On the other hand, there's a football game in the dome tonight and the requirement for getting in is proof of vaccination or a negative COVID test within 72 hours, neither of which means the person next to you won't be spewing out delta variant viruses with every drunken cheer. Better than nothing, I guess, and at least there will be some money changing hands and tax revenue.

Coming up we have a race weekend in Mississippi on the 11th and 12th, with Six Gap two weeks later. I guess I'll be doing both. The following weekend is NOMA to NOMA, which is a 150-mile gran fondo around Lake Pontchartrain, which is a day of misery that I will likely be skipping.

A Northshore Ride

Northshore paceline

It's summer down here and hot sweaty rides have been the norm for weeks and weeks. I get back from a morning ride and put my shoes and gloves in front of the box fan in the basement so that they will be more or less dry by the next morning. Some days, the helmet liner is still wet with yesterday's sweat. 

We've been in a routine summer pattern lately, which means it might rain, probably in the afternoon, maybe on you or maybe not. Just yesterday I ran out of the office a little early when I started hearing thunder in the distance. I put on my Assos rain jacket and waterproof cap and quickly discovered that "in the distance" was about four blocks. Within a mile I was in torrential rain, pants and shoes fully soaked, riding through deep puddles and dodging the debris in the Broad Street Overpass bike lane, hoping that my antique brakes would actually function on the way down. Anyway, suffice it to say that the training rides last week were pretty routine. Looking back in my training log, I was a little surprised to find that I hadn't taken a day off the bike since July 5, and hadn't missed two days since June 5. I keep thinking it'll be raining one morning and I'll get a day off, but it just hasn't happened. On the plus side, the two most recent tropical storms/hurricanes in the Gulf haven't been a cause for concern here.

Friendly Friday on the lakefront

So last Saturday Lisa, aka Queen Bee, rounded up a few of us for a 70+ mile northshore ride. I knew it would not involve much sightseeing and so I dug out the race wheels just in case things got out of hand. I think we had about nine or ten when we headed out early in the morning from the Lee Road ballpark. The sky was clear, the wind was light, and it was noticeably cooler and drier than it had been on the other side of the lake. As I'd expected, the pace hovered mostly in the 23-24 mph range, and I made the strategic decision to take only short and infrequent pulls. This group was well-experienced so the pace was smooth and steady, or at least as much so as possible given the terrain. Early in the ride VJ was having difficulty, and after a couple of quick regroupings he was basically left to his own devices somewhere before we got to Pine. 

Sunday's Route

With a group like this and a day like this, there wasn't any drama. Nobody was taking crazy fast pulls, nobody was attacking the climbs, nobody was flatting. Still, I have to chalk it up as a pretty hard ride by my own standards. Somewhere on the way back from Enon we saw Steve who was on his way out doing a solo ride. My early plan to conserve energy worked out well, and I was able to stay with the group without any problems, but it felt like a good hard training ride rather than a nice stroll in the countryside. I did not regret having taken the race wheels, either. 

After the ride I hung around quite a while since VJ had somehow missed us on the way back. Eventually, after everyone else had left, Matt went out to find him, so I headed back across the lake, arriving back home probably before 1:00 thanks to our early 7:15 am start time.

Hot August Weekend

Spillway road still a little rough

The heat and humidity were back with a vengeance last week and we are kind of stuck for a while in our typical summer cycle where the morning starts off at 80-82°F and then the big cumulus clouds start building up by 10:00. By afternoon there are some dark clouds around and the occasional rumble of thunder, and it's just a roll of the dice whether you'll happen to be underneath a torrential downpour or miss the rain completely half a mile away. I'm looking out the window here on Poydras Street right now and there are a few raindrops streaking down the window as I watch the new Caesar's signage being installed on the Superdome. Somehow it seems like having the title sponsor going from Mercedes Benz to Caesar's is kind of a step down.

Anyway, with Candy's hip progressing nicely we drove Danielle over to the airport Saturday morning, which of course meant I missed the Saturday Giro. So I headed out around 10:30 for a solo ride out to the Spillway which is around 50 miles round-trip. Riding solo, of course, always seems so much harder than riding with a group, even though my speed is at least 5 mph slower. Between the rapidly increasing temperature and the drudgery of the solo ride on the levee, it felt more like 80 miles. Granted, the total effort level for what turned out to be around 55 miles alone was actually significantly higher than a typical Giro of sitting in the draft, even if there were no high-intensity bits. I saw Steve heading the other way, so I guess we were both in the same situation. 

Out at the spillway I rode down to the spillway road to see how the repairs were coming. Some sections were washed out the last time(s) the spillway was opened, so it's been a couple of years since it was open. I navigated a couple of sections where the old roadbed had been cut out and looked about ready to be re-paved, but looking up the road I could see some heavy equipment at work and a big pile of dirt, so I decided to turn around rather than get in the middle of that. The ride back was good enough, and I added a lap around Audubon Park in the shade of the oak trees as a cool-down. Despite my best efforts, though, I was pretty dehydrated by the time I rolled up to the house and I needed the better part of the day to feel semi-recovered. Sunday's Giro Ride was also a study in hydration. For both rides I wore the new NOBC kit. I'd gotten one of the nicer jerseys and one of the regular ones. The nicer one is indeed nice. It fits well and the fabric is super-thin and cool. It's also fairly see-though, but who cares about that when it's 95 degrees outside?

Last week and all through the weekend I was checking the results of the USAC Masters Nationals over in Arizona. Everything started at about 5,000 feet, so I didn't feel too terrible about not being there, not that I would have been able to go anyway with everything going on. It was nice to see some of the people I know winning championships, though. Peter Reed was 4th in his age 45-49 TT age group and Michael Olheiser won his 45-59 Time Trial, with a 40km time of 51:06!  In my own age group, now 65-69, it's amazing how many names I recognize. I've raced with a lot of those guys over the past 45 years or so. Debbie Milne won her 50-54 criterium as well. Meanwhile Tom Bain won his 65-69 road race and was pretty close in the Crit as well. It was great that USAC was even able to pull off the event, considering the COVID situation. 

Meanwhile out in the Atlantic hurricane season is approaching - from the east as usual. There's a storm right now that is likely to be a tropical depression soon. The current track has it turning northward before it would be a problem here, but that's still a pretty long-range forecast and changes with each model run. At least nobody seems to be expecting it to blow up into a big hurricane, though. 

Red State

Heading back near LaRose into the rising sun.

Well, the Delta variant, aka SARS-CoV-3 B.1.617.2, has been spreading like wildfire (apologies to the state of California on the analogy) around here. I know more vaccinated people who have tested positive in the past few weeks than all of those, vaccinated or unvaccinated, who tested positive prior to that. It almost feels like getting infected with this variant is inevitable. 

So frustrating.....

On the plus side, practically everyone who was previously vaccinated is mounting a successful response and therefore suffering mild, or no, symptoms. We've been back under a local, and then statewide masking mandate for a few days, which is kind of like closing the barn door after the horses are out, but I guess better than nothing. My own data are showing state, city, and university rolling % positive numbers levelling off for the past few days, but of course hospitalization numbers are still trending dramatically upward. Meanwhile, we have masters nationals coming up that I hope won't get cancelled, but you never know. Robert just posted the initial announcement for the September 11-12 races up in Brandon, MS, and there's word of another Crit on the drawing board for the Shreveport area. We can only hope things are more under control by then.

Today's numbers

This morning Scott, who is one of the regulars on the morning levee rides, told us he just tested positive with mild flu-like symptoms. He was vaccinated back in February around the same time I was and tested negative just a week ago. There are at least a couple of other people who I ride with who have also tested positive lately, plus one of my co-workers. 

This morning the temperature up on the levee seemed quite a bit cooler than it's been, and even if the actual difference was small, the difference in humidity was very noticeable. No doubt as a result of the relatively nice weather we had a good-sized group for the ride. Also, and for the same reason, there were a lot of non-regular other people out there, some of whom had clearly not yet been properly trained about how to avoid getting plowed down by a paceline of riders. We had one guy on a bike who suddenly wandered across the bike path just as we were approaching, causing everyone to hit the brakes. The rider, of course, was spooked and over-corrected into the grass. I was fully expecting him to crash when he tried to ride back onto the asphalt just as I went past, but luckily we both survived. It was actually a pretty fast ride this morning. The cooler air and mild wind kept everyone a little more motivated than usual, I guess.